@Phil
phil spade
@Phil · 4:11

NCAA Over/Under Strategy and Trend

I was looking at College football's Thursday night slated games, and I started to notice that this spade of games looks exactly like Saturday slated games. What I mean by that we have one game in Central Florida, Boise State, that's decided by a single digit spread, and the rest of them are all into the double digits, with some being well into the double digits into the 20s and 30s. And this is exactly what we saw on Saturday

Are coaches now less likely to run up scores?

@tonymo
Tony Mosesso
@tonymo · 1:31

Vegas knows more than the armchair QB

They all moved by a couple of points in the over direction. So what I'm thinking, and just from knowing people that gamble or watching the pundits on Twitter or what have you is people don't really like to bet unders. It's not fun. You bet it over. You're rooting for everybody to score just points points. Whereas when you bet an under every field goal, every touch on every extra point is getting you closer to losing rather than winning
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@Phil
phil spade
@Phil · 1:12

Watching a game with the under is miserable

So I think that was more or less some bigger time operations telling Vegas that they opened the Rhine wrong, that they had it wrong. But when I see the armchair quarterbacks punching one side, that's when I'll go the opposite way, the contrarian approach. And as far as unders, you make a really good point because betting and under can just ruin your night or ruin your day because you have to watch that game so intently. And then you're doing the math
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@Phil
phil spade
@Phil · 0:42

Update: Thursdays games were 50-50

Just an update here. I tracked this over under theory on the Thursday night games here I had about six games or I had six games that I was tracking on this theory, and it went three for three. So nothing much. You're not going to gain any edge here with this theory. Thought I might have had something, but I don't think there's anything here. I did notice that the over unders kind of came down. They were about 58 and even 68 on Saturday
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